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BART, SFMTA, AC Transit, and Caltrain have each published their projected budget gaps starting around FY 2027. Added together the total is over $800 million per year.
BART published a contingency plan that closes 15 stations, ends the Blue Line, cuts frequency to every 30 minutes, and stops trains at 9 PM.
SFMTA's contingency plan lists cutting about half of Muni bus and Metro lines and suspending cable car service.
The same BART contingency plan lists approximately 1,200 job cuts region-wide.
These numbers come from published agency reports and a regional rider survey. If you want the longer version of where each number came from, open Where we got these numbers or the link list at the bottom.
In MTC's 2023-24 regional rider survey (about 16,500 respondents across 23 transit systems), 65% said their household does not have a car. This is self-reported survey data.
MTC's survey covered 23 operators across the Bay Area, large and small.
BART's published sustainability data shows 88% lower greenhouse gas emissions per passenger mile compared to driving.
The Connect Bay Area measure covers Alameda, Contra Costa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties.
BART's 2024 'Role in the Region' report states Bay Bridge traffic would increase 73% if BART riders switched to cars.
BART's published sustainability data estimates its trains displace roughly 600,000 pounds of CO2 per day compared to equivalent car trips.
A BART-commissioned economic study counted over 800,000 jobs within a 15-minute walk of BART stations system-wide.
MTC has published data showing the average transit-using household saves roughly $10,000 per year compared to car ownership costs.
A sales tax of half a cent to one cent per dollar in five counties. The measure is projected to raise roughly one billion dollars per year over 14 years for regional transit operations. It requires approximately 186,000 valid signatures to qualify for the November 2026 ballot and a simple majority to pass. State law SB 63, signed by the governor in October 2025, authorized the measure.
A separate parcel tax in San Francisco only. It is projected to raise $160–183 million per year for 15 years for Muni. For most single-family homes the annual tax is about $129. Supporters say both this measure and Connect Bay Area are needed to prevent the deepest Muni cuts in the contingency plan.
Last updated April 2026. If something looks wrong, reach out and we will fix it.